Another coup, whether staged by Thaksin sympathisers or by the CNS, would be disastrous for the country.

The plunge in the popularity of the interim Surayud government in the wake of the New Year bomb attacks in Bangkok came as no surprise. If Thais hadn't expected full liberty and freedom in the wake of the September 19 coup, surely the nation was hoping for some semblance of political stability and peace. The explosions shattered that hope, and, as if that wasn't enough, rumours swept town on Thursday evening about an impending coup. If another popularity survey had been conducted on Friday, the previous rating, which showed approval for the administration dropped below 50 per cent for the first time, might have read like a good score.

For the Thai people, already living on the edge, another coup would probably just do it - whether it be a pro-Thaksin counter coup or a "repeat" coup to re-boost the Council for National Security's power. The former would drag the country down a disastrous path, because it would surely involve the real use of force and would not produce any winners. More bloodshed would follow.

But according to analysts, the latter seems more possible, if not plausible. There have been reports of conflict among CNS members, and between the CNS and the CNS-installed Surayud government, prompting speculation that the hard-liners in the interim leadership want to reinforce their grip on power. One alleged objective of a repeat coup would be to launch a no-holds-barred clampdown on remnants of the previous regime, including seizure of the assets of ousted prime minister Thaksin. Another possible objective, and a much scarier one, would be to extend the stay of the coup-leaders beyond the Thai people's welcome.

This type of coup could be less bloody, or totally bloodless. But the damage to Thai politics and the country would be no less than a counter coup. Plotters might succeed in getting the power they want, but they would lose something much more important. The already fragile public trust in the military to bring about a peaceful end to the political impasse and introduce a more effective democratic system would be blown away.

We can only hope the CNS leaders know this well enough. More importantly, we hope they stay true to their proclaimed patriotism, which was declared when they sent Thaksin away. One of the stated objectives of the coup was to bring back harmony. Another coup would mock that and cause even greater division.

The scant resistance to the September 19 coup must not give them the wrong idea that any coup can succeed with the right timing, the seizure of TV stations and the right declarations. A repeat coup might give them greater power but it would never compensate for the loss of public trust and the resulting transformation of Thaksin Shinawatra from a villain to a hero. Those two consequences would alienate the military leadership and Thailand would be in for a new period of turmoil.

There have been denials from the CNS strongmen. While they sound sincere, developments make them sound less convincing than they probably wanted to. While some coup rumours have been proved to be cooked up in the past, some were known to have strong foundations. The Thursday evening scare followed a series of signs pointing to things going out of control - defiant public accusations against the interim leaders, the New Year bombs, the direct blame on Thaksin, his emotional letter, an equally emotional and more arrogant response from his ally, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, and reported conflict among the CNS and government over how to deal with the "old power".

The CNS has all the powers necessary to restore Thailand politically. Thaksin and his former associates cannot interfere with the ongoing graft investigation. Public protests against the interim leadership have been small and controllable. The mass media have been largely on the interim leaders' side. And to deal with terrorists doesn't mean a new coup has to be staged, because a new coup cannot guarantee better safety in public places or better surveillance equipment. The CNS still possesses something rare and valuable - public faith. That faith was guarded at first and is now becoming increasingly fragile. While they surely want to hold on to it to the best of their ability, a repeat coup would take it away. It's as simple as that.