Constitution Tribunal must hold to the law and not bow to pressure from those who foresee violence

All eyes are on the nine-member Constitution Tribunal, which is set to deliver its verdict this afternoon on the possible dissolution of either or both the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties in connection with alleged electoral fraud. Complicated legal technicalities aside, the spectre of street violence must also have weighed heavily on individual judges. There is a palpable fear that any ruling from the tribunal to disband either or both the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat Parties could trigger angry protests from their supporters in Bangkok and other provinces against the Tribunal and the military junta, the Council for National Security (CNS), which appointed it. If the worst-case scenario of a bloody clash between protesters and security forces comes to pass, the political consequences pertaining to the future of Thailand's democracy will be nothing short of catastrophic.

Tens of thousands of police and military personnel, including anti-riot squads, have been put on standby to deal with any eventualities. Despite the best efforts of authorities to bar "organised" protesters from upcountry from converging on Bangkok, thousands of demonstrators are expected to turn up at Sanam Luang and other places in the capital today in the hopes of putting pressure on the Constitution Tribunal to rule in favour of the parties they support.

Given the volatility of the situation, some people have suggested that the Constitution Tribunal should place a greater emphasis on political considerations rather than focusing on purely legal questions and dissolve both parties regardless of the substance of the evidence at hand or the relative severity of wrongdoing. Those who subscribe to this line of thought argue that this would head off potentially violent protests as neither party could be seen as benefiting at the expense of the other.

These cynical people also confess that their reason for advocating this so-called even-handed approach to ward off street violence is that they are afraid some rogue generals would use any untoward incident as a pretext to stage a fresh coup and grab power for themselves. But such an act would constitute an unforgivable betrayal of public trust and treason.

The Constitution Tribunal should disregard all this nonsense and concentrate only on the legal aspects of this case.

The interim Surayud government and the CNS are expected to keep the peace by strictly enforcing relevant laws to protect unarmed demonstrators who have the right of freedom of assembly and freedom of expression, and, when necessary, to suppress violent protesters bent on harming others.

Based on this assumption - that the Surayud government and the military junta will maintain law and order - the Constitution Tribunal should make its decision in this case without fear or favour.

Whatever ruling the Constitution Tribunal hands down, it will have far-reaching effects on the country's political future.

It must be remembered in no uncertain terms that this country needs the Constitution Tribunal to have a positive impact on the country's destiny as a functional democracy based on the rule of law - not on the politics of fear or, worse, the cynical manipulation of the political situation by certain overly ambitious military leaders.

That's why the Constitution Tribunal's judges must exercise their judgement wisely. Dissolving both the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties would completely decimate the current generation of politicians leaving a power vacuum that would enable the military to seize a dominant role in national politics, which would stunt democracy as we know it.

There is no chance in the world that democracy-loving people in this country would allow that to happen. Examples abound of overbearing generals coveting high political offices who ended up in the scrap-heap of history as enemies of democracy, tyrannical leaders and perpetrators of fraud and corruption. In a modern democracy like ours, citizens must realise that the power of the people is absolute in a sovereign state. In other words, the sovereign power to govern comes from the people and all rulers exercise that power with the people's consent.

We as a people must not allow our political destiny as a democracy to be determined by covetous generals. Let it be known that citizens of a democracy are no longer political pawns that can be manipulated on the political chessboard by the powers-that-be.

Security authorities have boasted so much about how they intend to handle mass rallies that many imagine the country is on the brink of disintegration. But reporters can find no one who is organising or gathering for protest. Some now ask whether those in charge of national security have manipulated information.

With the Constitution Tribunal to make its long-awaited rulings in the party dissolution cases today, many have the impression that the country is sinking even deeper into political turmoil.

Such feelings seem to be built on information leaked from security authorities in the military-installed government and the Council for National Security (CNS).

These authorities have been telling reporters how they plan to handle mass rallies anticipated in response to today's verdicts.

The full-scale preparation on the part of security authorities makes many imagine the country is on the brink of disintegration.

Nonetheless, when reporters asked leaders of political groups expected to launch rallies, and other political campaigners, their replies gave the opposite impression. All of them insisted they will stay home to watch the verdict on television and they will persuade their supporters to do the same.

Some have begun to ask whether the public has fallen prey to information manipulation by those in charge of national security.

In the past week, the political situation has been relatively stable.

However, the security authorities and those likely to be affected by today's ruling seem to have engaged in a psychological battle which has also worsened the atmosphere for reconciliation.

Security authorities told reporters they have adjusted security plans to cover wider areas around Bangkok, rather than focusing on city landmarks.

Military and police officers were assigned to closely monitor people in their jurisdictions and prevent them converging on the capital.

The authorities also released reports that they have set up countless road checkpoints throughout the country and that military officers have undergone crowd dispersal training.

Police said they are equipped with tear gas and pepper sprays.

Key members of the CNS also gave interviews saying they may have to declare a state of emergency as it might not be able to control the situation.

They also released reports that deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra allegedly tried to sneak back into Thailand through either the Thai-Burmese border in Chiang Rai province or the Thai-Cambodian border in Trat.

Closer to the day of the ruling came more unverified news and rumours about Mr Thaksin and his supporters whipping up political undercurrents.

Acting Thai Rak Thai party leader Chaturon Chaisaeng affirmed that his party will accept the tribunal's verdict and has no plan to hold a rally.

Those in power were trying to make news that frightened the public, he said. They had also hired various groups of people to commit crimes and slandered the old power clique as being responsible for those crimes.

Mr Chaturon called for security authorities to stop frightening the people and scrap their plan to enforce the emergency decree in Bangkok.

However, on the other side of the fence, the anti-government and anti-coup groups have not sat still.

The Saturday Voice Against Dictatorship group earlier announced a plan to hold a mass rally today, and said it would distribute 200,000 Jatukarm Ramathep amulets to participants.

Executives of the banned People's Television satellite station said they would hold a rally tomorrow.

However, observers viewed the two groups' rallies as part of their regular political activities, and nothing more special than their earlier protests.

The only one seemingly unmoved by all news reports and pressure from political groups is Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont.

He insisted that the Constitution Tribunal's verdicts will be the end of the fraud cases related to last year's April 2 election.

He said he was confident that most Thais understood the country's situation well, and that a nation could not exist if its people do not abide by the rule of law

The Democrat party has been with Thailand for 60 years. It may not have been the most innovative party, but it has proven to be an important democratic engine (good and bad) that has helped promote the democratic development in Thailand. There are some old and dirty figures within the Democrat party - one of them is you-know-who. This is the guy who was behind all the bad acts in the name of the Democrat party - he should be the only one who is banned from politics as well as imprisoned (if I were my choice to make).

The Thai Rak Thai is a new party and was once (may still be) surely filled with greedy businessman-turned-politicians. However, in just 5 years, it has proven to be one-of-the-kind innovative engine (good and bad) in the Thai politics. It has implemented many (some of which were accused of being corrupt) policies that has helped put Thailand the in the global economic map for the first time. Prior to the reign of the TRT, Thailand had always been under the shadow of Malaysia. Thaksin, for good or for bad, helped bring Thailand out of the financial crisis and put Thailand on its way to claim its place in the world.

Dissolving either or both parties will not serve the pubic any good. It will only serve the military regime. There are some righteous military generals. However, there are quite a few who are power hungers – you-know-who is one of those. This you-know-who individual is the very person who will benefit most from the dissolution of any party or both.

He and his gang, aka, you-know-who, and their alliances will manipulate the Thai population for their own gains while nothing good will be returned to the public.

On the other hand, Thaksin, who is yet to be proved right or wrong concerning all the corruption probes against him, has created tremendous successes to the Thai society.

This coup is like the 1992 coup in a way. It happened as a result of the power struggle between the government and the military. I remember what happened in 1992. The military had to take over the government because the prime minister was cutting the military budget and tried to weaken the power of the generals. Then, the generals accused the prime minister of countless number of corruptions that were never proved guilty in the courts, as a ground for the coup.

The 2006 coup is the repeat of a similar dilemma. Thakin, who was a policeman-turned-businessman-turned politician, by nature, would be disliked by the military generals. Throughout the Thai history, the military and the police force never really got along. The military always portrait themselves as heroes and imposes self-importance to the society; they always see the police force as less significant and less honorable than they are. When Thaksin, repeating the same mistake done by the 1992 prime minister, not only cutting the military budget, but also promoting the importance of the police force while trying to weaken the power of the military generals. The police force was coming out of the shadow of the military for the first time in the Thai history. Before the police could gain their solid ground, however, the military generals had to take things in their own hands to protect their very best interests – self-preservation, that is.

The judges must do a very careful analysis – studying not only the laws but the history as well, especially when it involves the two very true and major rivals in the Thai politics – the military and the politicians.

If the judges decide to dissolve even one political party, at this juncture, it will send a strong message to the public that the judges favor the military over the representatives of the public in which they should and have sworn to serve.

The Democrat and the Thai Rak Thai, if they really care about the people who they represent, as they always say they do, this is the time for them to unite to fight the power-hungry-military generals. The generals may have tanks, but you, politicians, have 60 million people. If the tanks killed all people, what good would the tanks be for? So, they would not dare to kill even one innocent citizen (at least, not in public any way).

If they put their heads together, they can win this fight, not just for their survival but also for the sake of the country and the public that they ought to serve.

Politicians can be rivals during elections and during the normal course of democracy. However, Thailand is not in a normal course of democracy at this very moment. The country has been under the power of a few dictators and elitists. It is time for politicians to put their differences aside and get together to fight the very enemy of democracy that they ought to fight.

Both the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai must work together with the assistance from the public to redeem the Thai democracy.

Abhisit, you might want to consider this. If you can put your pride aside for now, and go to Chaturon, who is your senior both in age and in political and life experiences, talk to him. If you and Chaturon can work together to save this country from the crisis and from the dark power of the dictators (and the elitists who are behind them), both you and Chaturon will be seen by the public as the heroes of the Thai democracy. It will be a win-win for both you, Abhisit and Chaturon.

Abhisit and Chaturon, two of you are the new breed of politicians that the Thai society has been asking for nearly a century. Both of you, while having some differences, are politicians with ideology who have good ethics. If you say you want what is best for this country, then you must work together to preserve Thai democracy and to rid of the power outside the constitution – the dictators and the greedy and power hungry elitists.