Nobody would like to be in the shoes of Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin at the moment. He is not sure where to go or what to do next. Nominees of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra have returned to power after the December 23 election. Gen Sonthi has lost out in the game of power. When Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister, takes over the Defence portfolio, it will be all over.

Gen Sonthi has talked twice with Thaksin over the phone since the People Power Party won the election. He described the conversations as brotherly. "I won't say in detail what we talked about but I can say most of our conversation was an exchange of greetings and did not touch on political negotiations," Gen Sonthi said.

He has had to accept the bitter reality. On January 23, Gen Sonthi went for a three-hour meeting with an "influential person". He got the signal that since People Power had won the election, it should be allowed to follow the democratic path. Then Gen Sonthi left for the Middle East. There were rumours that he might seek refuge there, perhaps even in Libya. Another account has it that he has already bought a home in Malaysia, in case he has to leave Thailand.

Is there a deal being struck in high places for the return of Thaksin? This is a mystery. But Thaksin supporters claim a reconciliation deal has been reached. It is just a matter of time before he returns in triumph, they say.

From the outset, Gen Sonthi was a reluctant coup leader. On the morning of September 19, 2006 he was still unsure whether he would need to stage a coup to oust the Thaksin government and put an end to the street demonstrations that could have degenerated into bloodshed. Gen Saprang Kalyamanitr told him outright that morning: if he did not stage a coup, Saprang would do it himself.

Gen Sonthi went along with the plan and became a nominee coup leader. He did not have real power, nor did he attempt to assert it. All the arrangements to form an interim government were made without his knowledge. Gen Surayud Chulanont was sent in as prime minister. He had the image of a tough and intelligent military leader who would take on Thaksin and unrest in the South. He was expected to do his job effectively; it would be like a military operation zooming in on targets.

Initially, the coup was intended to remove Thaksin from power and dismantle his political hierarchy, plus his vast networks in the military, the police, the bureaucracy and state agencies. The Assets Examination Committee was formed to go after Thaksin and his family's assets. The military promised to return Thailand to democracy in one year. Within that period, criminal cases against Thaksin, who was accused of massive corruption, would be built up to the extent that the former PM would not be able to return to Thailand. If Thaksin stayed abroad and let Thailand move on, it would be in the interest of everybody.

But it didn't work out as planned. There were conflicts between the military and Gen Surayud over how to handle Thaksin. Should they get tough with him or should they let things go at their natural tempo? Every time the military sent a signal they wanted to get tough with Thaksin, Gen Surayud would only concur. There was little follow-up action.

Now people are turning their eyes to Gen Surayud, who has done virtually nothing to stop Thaksin and his cronies' coming back. Has he, too, settled on a deal with Thaksin? He was only interested in fulfilling his term as an interim PM.

The Sonthi-led military tried to prevent PPP from winning the election. Sonthi was reported to be behind the Puea Pandin Party, a breakaway group from the banned Thai Rak Thai Party. Puea Pandin was formed to counter the PPP in its Northeast stronghold. It had hopes of winning by a wide margin, wide enough to keep the number of PPP MPs below 200 - and PPP confined to the opposition. As it turned out, Puea Pandin was routed in polls in the Northeast. It was outsmarted and outwitted by Thaksin's broad-based network and money. The PPP won almost 50 per cent of the seats in Parliament, making it virtually impossible for the Democrats to form a coalition government. The PPP has gone ahead to bring five other parties, most of which are made up of ex-TRT members, under its wing.

The coup now looks like merely a sabbatical for Thaksin. We areback to square one, back to the pre-coup period when Thaksin and his cronies were in power. We are witnessing one of the most bizarre episodes in Thai political history.