It is easy for Thaksin to adopt a conciliatary attitude, but talk is cheap and he will be closely watched. Turning himself in to the authorities upon his return from a 17-month exile, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra promised to stay out of politics, fight corruption charges to clear his name, and devote himself to charitable works. He even went as far as to apologise to the Thai people for his part in causing confrontational politics that resulted in divisiveness. The question on everybody's mind is, can we trust him? If not, can Thai society, with its newly-restored and fragile democracy, withstand the sort of destructively divisive politics that Thaksin and his loyal friends in powerful positions may resort to.

Calling it quits as a politician doesn't mean Thaksin will stop exerting his still-formidable influence to gain himself and members of his family undue advantage in the legal battle against corruption charges. His pulling strings from behind the scenes will be extremely difficult to prevent, much less prove.

As a high-profile criminal suspect in multiple corruption cases that are either pending judicial proceedings or are being investigated, Thaksin was nevertheless given a hero's welcome by his supporters, including senior members of the Samak administration and former executives of the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai party.

PM Samak Sundaravej has chosen to distance himself from the former prime minister, at least in public. It is clear that Samak intends to preserve his public image as a prime minister who exercises strong leadership - not merely a proxy of Thaksin. Understandably, Samak hates the idea that people see him merely as a puppet.

Military leaders, including those who took part in the September 2006 coup that overthrew Thaksin, have gone back to barracks and submitted to the authority of the democratically-elected government.

A charismatic leader with a tenacious personality to match, Thaksin has come back with a seemingly much gentler and reconciliatory approach. He even reassured the coup-makers, the Council for National Security, that he will not seek revenge.

Anti-Thaksin groups, led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The PAD organised months of massive street protests that led to a crisis of confidence in Thaksin's leadership that culminated in his ouster.

The PAD says it will not stir things up unless Thaksin or his associates in the ruling People Power Party - which Thaksin helped create - begin meddling in the justice system, undermining democratic institutions, or threatening civil liberties.

Meanwhile, the Assets Examination Committee, appointed by the coup-makers to investigate several corruption allegations against Thaksin and his associates, has vowed to perform its duty without fear or favour up to the June deadline when its mandate ends.

Thaksin, who was taken into custody by police upon arrival at Suvarnabhumi Airport, reported to the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions. He is due to stand trial on a charge of conflict of interest in connection with the controversial 2003 purchase, by his wife, Pojaman, of a prime piece of land in Bangkok from the Financial Institutions Development Fund. The agency is under the administrative purview of the Finance Ministry.

Thaksin was then taken to the Office of the Attorney General to acknowledge the charge against him filed by the Department of Special Investigations for alleged concealment of shares that he and his family members held in SC Asset Corporation, a publicly-listed property development company.

As expected, Thaksin was granted temporary release on bail by the presiding judges at both the Supreme Court's Special Division for Holders of Political Positions and at the Office of the Attorney General.

Thai people have learned a painful lesson from the first time Thaksin became prime minister, back in 2001. He was the most popular democratically-elected leader in Thailand's modern political history. But he took for granted the public mandate, went on to manipulate people's expectations with quick fixes and handouts, and, in his arrogance, proceeded to enrich himself and his cronies at the expense of the public interest, undermine the political system of checks and balances, and roll back civil liberties. The rest is history.

What would have happened if Thaksin Shinawatra had returned home on Tuesday while Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister, was due to preside over the weekly Cabinet meeting? You don't have to guess the answer at all.

Most of the Cabinet members would have abandoned the meeting and rushed to Suvarnabhumi Airport to greet Thaksin. Samak would have been left alone with the mosquitoes at Government House.

There is a historical anecdote here. During the late Ayutthaya period, Chao Phaya Kalahom emerged as the most powerful figure in the Atityawong Court. When Chao Phaya Kalahom's mother passed away, all the senior officials or Cabinet members went to attend the funeral. The king was left alone in his palace. the king complained that all the people were loyal to Chao Phaya Kalahom and nobody was paying any attention to him. When Chao Phaya Kalahom overheard the King's remark, he staged a coup. He usurped the throne to become King Prasatthong, and ruled for 25 years until 1655.

Samak is facing a similar dilemma. The ex-prime minister has finally returned home to perhaps reclaim power, albeit in a more discreet way this time.

Dr Surapong Suebwonglee, the finance minister, has already sent out a signal about who really is the boss. He said he would consult Thaksin over how to tackle the country's economic problems and the issue of capital controls.

Samak was stunned by the unexpected return of Thaksin. He had thought he would have time to consolidate his position before Thaksin's return. He was feeling uneasy all day long yesterday, unsure how to move ahead with his premiership.

For a number of reasons, Thaksin has found it expedient to take a big gamble and return home after 17 months in exile.

First, he is afraid the popularity of the Samak government will be short-lived while the economy needs to be handled with a sense of urgency. He said the Thai economy was in bad shape and in need of a doctor to give it at least seven injections. If the economy were mismanaged, it would slip out of control and hurt the government's popularity.

Second, Thaksin is afraid the People Power Party might break apart. And The B-Team, now running the government as substitutes for the 111 executives of the defunct Thai Rak Thai party, might get carried away with power. These novices thus need to be held in check.

Third - and this is probably the most important problem of all - Thaksin will need to confront Samak, who has gone his own way to carve out a power-base of his own.

Thaksin needs to put more of his people in different key positions so that when the timing is right, Samak can be removed from the top office. A reorganisation will have to take place soon. You can expect either Surapong or Somchai Wongsawat to succeed Samak as prime minister.

Over his 17 months in exile, Thaksin developed his image so that he became a sort of myth. Few Thais ever saw him in person. They knew he was rich and owned an English Premier League football club. They knew he was moving around continually, appearing and reappearing in Beijing or Hong Kong, then back in London.

So, now that Thaksin has set foot on Thai soil again, he has demystified himself. He is the old Thaksin we all know. He kissed the land to show his bond to the country. Okay, Thaksin is back. And what is next for him?

I guess he won't be in too much of a hurry to reclaim power. He can still pull strings behind the scenes. He knows who his friends and enemies are. His friends are being rewarded with key positions while his foes are being nullified. He does not need to avenge those who removed him from power. If the military leaves him alone, he will leave them alone - at least for the time being. There is a tacit agreement between them, otherwise Thaksin would not have dared to return home.

Thaksin will try to create the impression he is the non-elected leader. He will go to the Golf Association or preside over his Thaicom Foundation. He will visit people and ask about their well-being. If the court gives him the freedom to travel, he will go abroad from time to time.

Over the next five years, all the corruption cases brought against him might not lead anywhere. Then he will make a political comeback.

In the short term, however, political calm will return to Thailand. A political showdown is unlikely to happen soon. But down the line, there will be some bumpy incidents.