The political showdown has reached the point where everyone can only pray and nobody dares to predict the outcome.

Thaksin Shinawatra says he wants to "conclude" it during, if not before, Songkran. Abhisit Vejjajiva says everything will return to normal after Songkran. What will this dangerous common ground of the two men who have become arch-rivals lead us to is anyone's guess.

One day after the whole of Thailand is the ultimate loser, the nation is staring at one of the most monumentous political showdowns in modern history. And interestingly, both warring parties are up against the ropes. Thaksin and the red-shirted movement have gambled with everything they had, alienating themselves from non-partisan Thais with the kind of aggession that has put the already weak Thai economy in jeopardy and further threatened frabics of nationhood. Abhisit, on the other hand, has cornered himself with the Mr Nice Guy approach and the only way to shore up his wavering legitimacy is to act tough.

Thaksin has nothing to lose, albeit except Bt76 billion which may be the final answer to the question "Why?". Abhisit has everything to lose and some values to protect.

The prime minister was said to have lashed out at the police, military and government kingmaker Suthep Thaugsuban after the Pattaya debacle which is costing much more than just his face. The turmoil that caused the cancellation of the Asean summit with dialogue partners, however, has eaten into public sympathy for the red shirts as much as Abhisit's leadership.

Declaration of state of emergency in Bangkok and its suburbs was Abhisit's only choice. If it wasn't his last throw of the dice, it was something very close. A failed state of emergency like the one declared by the ill-fated government of Samak Sundaravej last year could doom Abhisit's reign. But a bloodshed as a result of the state of emergency could also generate political repercussions that are as bad, if not worse.

And Abhisit's state of emergency will be enforced against a backdrop of doubtful loyalty from the police and, to a lesser extent, the military. Conspiracy theorists are seeing an increasingly isolated prime minister after what should have been a high-alert security routine in Pattaya provided a non-existent barricade allowing protesters to sleepwalk to the summit hotel in great numbers. Other analysts, however, simply view the outbreak of red-shirted aggression as a result of a too-cautious approach of authorities too fearful of things getting out of control.

It will become evident very soon whether Abhisit is acting tough when it's too late. If they had failed in Pattaya on Saturday, the red-shirted protesters could have been tamed or calm today. But now that they have been buoyed by the Pattaya "victory", the movement will naturally be more difficult to contain.

One thing remains unchanged for Thaksin. A crumbled government, or a House dissolution, or a large-scale bloody riot, or even a coup, will not be enough to bring him home, let alone restore him politically. This is a war just for the man to get even, or at best some leverage to push for return of the frozen Bt76 billion.

So, it's fast becoming a war between enemies whose only way to go is forward. One side is very desperate, while the other has been jolted into a near panic mode. This is the kind of situation where no pundit dares predicting the immediate result, let alone a long-term one.

Tens of thousands of protesters rallied in Bangkok on Wednesday in their biggest effort yet to topple Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government, and demanding the resignation of Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda

While the protest leaders demanded loudly that Gen Prem step down, their supporters noisely cheered them on with hand-held clappers in the shape of hearts and feet.

Hundreds of riot police formed up in lines inside Gen Prem's compound. Barbed wire was placed at the entrance.

Police estimated at least 60,000 people had joined the rally, but this was nowhere near the figure of 300,000 protest leaders had predicted would turn up.

The red-shirts also massed outside the Government House, also demanding the government's resignation and Gen Prem's departure. They chanted, "Bring Thaksin back, Abhisit get out!" "We came here to expel the government," protest leader Nattawut Saikua told the cheering crowd.

However, Mr Abhisit said he would not quit, and warned the protesters there would be a strong reaction if there was any violence. "The government will act decisively against any provocateurs,'' Mr Abhisit told reporters. "I will not dissolve the house because of violence.''

He said some protesters just wanted to trigger chaos. "There's a group of people looking to create chaos, but the government will do everything to restrain them,'' he said in an interview on Channel 3 television. "If there's any rioting, we will have to do something. But I can affirm there will be no violence which starts from the government's side.''

The protest comes a day after red-shirts attacked Mr Abhisit's motorcade following a cabinet meeting in Pattaya, smashing the rear window of his car in a major escalation of tensions.

Protest leaders said they expected thousands more supporters to arrive inBangkok from around the country on Wednesday for what they have deemed "D-Day" in their effort to push Mr Abhisit to dissolve his four-month-old government and hold elections.

The unrest has prompted mounting speculation that the army could mount another coup, even though Mr Abhisit and his ministers are accused by their opponents of being the military's stooges. But army commander-in-chief Gen Anupong Paojinda dismissed talk of a coup. "No matter how the situation deteriorates, we will abide by the law and use no other extra power,'' he said.

Billionaire tycoon Thaksin, who is living in an undisclosed foreign country to avoid a jail term for corruption, said late on Tuesday the protests would mark a "historic day for Thailand''.

"We will come peacefully but we need as many people as possible to show that the Thai people will not tolerate these politics any more," he said in a speech by video-link to supporters outside Government House.

The protesters were reported to be setting up stages at the Royal Plaza, Makkhawan bridge and in front of the residence of Gen Prem, in addition to the stage outside the Government House grounds. Thaksin was expected to make another video link-up to address them on Wednesday evening.

British-born Abhisit came to power in December after a court ruling removed Thaksin's allies from government. The decision came after a long street campaign by protesters claiming allegiance to the monarchy.

The country remains deeply divided between Thaksin's followers among the urban and rural poor, and his foes in the traditional power cliques of the palace, military and bureaucracy.

Plot to kill Chanchai confirmed
National police chief General Patcharawat Wongsuwan on Wednesday confirmed the contract on the life of privy councillor Chanchai Likhitjittha.

Police arrested four suspects, comprising two gunmen, Phanuphong Ratanapaiboon and Sakchai Sae Lim; one procuror of gunmen, Kamit Sukanchanakat and one Army officer to put out the contract, Major Thienchai Mueangchantuek.

The suspects admitted to have attempted to kill Chanchai three times, twice on April 4 and once on April 5, one day before they were detained by the police.

Thienchai said his superior, a colonel, hired him as a go-between to procure a team of gunmen. He said he was paid Bt1.5 million for the job, which included the killing as well as arson attacks on 10 banks and government installations around Bangkok. He said he in turn paid Kanit Bt600,000 to contract Phanuphong and Sakchai, each got paid Bt140,000. Police uncovered bank records to confirm the transaction.

Thaksin's close family leaves Thailand
The three children and several other close family members of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra have left Thailand ahead of the mass rally Wednesday, sources said.

Paetongtan Shinawatra, Thaksin's youngest daughter, and Thaksin's ex-wife, Pojaman Damapong, left on Cathay Pacific's Flight CX750 to Hong Kong Monday's night.

Also in the same night, Pintonta Shinawatra, another daughter, left for England on Thai Airways International's Flight TG910.

According the sources, Somchai Wongsawat, former prime minister and ex-brother-in-law of Thaksin, and Pantongtae Shinawatra, the son of Thaksin, left for United Arab Emirates on UAE Airlines' Flight eX419 Tuesday night.

Two sisters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra joined the rally in front of the Government House Wednesday afternoon. Yinglak Shinawatra and Yaowapha Wongsawat were seen on D Station satellite TV of the red-shirted movement sitting in the tent next to the main stage.

Newin urges red-shirts to have second thought for joining rally Wednesday
Newin Chidchob, former Thai Rak Thai Party executive, Tuesday urged those who plan to join the mass rally of the red-shirted people on Wednesday to have a second thought. Telling a press confidence, which is broadcast live on some TV stations, Newin said the red-shirted leaders apparently attacked the monarchy when they attacked the privy councillors.

Tearful Newin Chidchob Tuesday asked red-shirted people to stop upsetting the monarchy. Newin, former Thai Rak Thai executive, could not hold back his tears and his voice was choked with emotion when he told a press conference that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the red-shirted leaders should stop upsetting the monarchy for their political gains.